Dating Patterns

Brutal breakup

How do I know when to break up?

No study can make the call for you, but research can make the decision clearer: sort the reasons that are about the future from the ones about what you've already spent, notice how long you've been on the fence, and know that regret runs in both directions.

Written by Natalie S. (pen name)

Updated · Published · 5 min read · 4 sources

There’s no research finding that can tell you whether your relationship should end, and anyone who says otherwise is guessing. What research can do is make the decision clearer: separate the reasons that are about your future from the ones about what you’ve already put in, notice how long you’ve been stuck on the fence, and understand that regret can follow either choice, just on different timelines.

Why does this decision feel impossible?

Because you’re probably holding real reasons on both sides at once, and every new conversation, good weekend or bad fight tips the scale for a day before it tips back.

Picture Dana, three years into a relationship with Emre. On Monday she’s sure. On Thursday Emre cooks her favorite dinner after a brutal day and she’s sure of the opposite. By the weekend she’s back to asking friends what they would do, and each friend gives a different answer. Nothing is wrong with Dana’s judgment. She’s ambivalent, and ambivalence is what this decision usually feels like from the inside.

Economist Steven Levitt ran an unusual experiment with people in exactly that spot. He invited people who were struggling with a big decision, and breaking up was among the most common, to flip a coin online and then report back.1 In all, 22,511 people used the site.1 People whose coin said “make the change” were about 11 percentage points more likely to actually make one.1 Levitt’s reading of the results was that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.1

That isn’t a verdict on your relationship, and the study pooled many kinds of decisions together. What it does suggest is that long stretches on the fence are common, and that the fence itself has a cost.

What is the investment trap?

It’s the pull to stay because of what you’ve already spent: years, money, effort, the friends you share, the apartment you finally furnished. Economists call it the sunk cost effect, and researchers in Portugal tested whether it shows up in relationships.

In a study by Sara Rego and colleagues, 902 people read about an unhappy relationship and chose whether the person should stay or end it. They were more likely to choose staying when money and effort had already gone into the relationship, though time on its own didn’t have that effect.2 In a second experiment with 275 people, time did matter in a different way: people were willing to put more future time into a relationship when more time had already been invested.2

These were hypothetical scenarios, not people’s own partners, so they show a bias in how people reason rather than what anyone should do. But the bias is worth catching in yourself. “We’ve been together six years” is a true sentence. It just doesn’t say anything about the next six. The years are spent either way.

A useful test: if you met this person today, exactly as they are, and the relationship was exactly as it is now, would you choose it? If the honest answer is yes, the investment isn’t what’s keeping you. If the answer depends on the history, notice that.

Which choice will I regret?

Possibly either one, which is why fear of regret makes such a poor tiebreaker. Psychologists Thomas Gilovich and Victoria Medvec reviewed the research on regret and found a pattern in time: things people did produce more regret in the short term, while things people didn’t do produce more regret over the long run.3

In plain terms, if you leave, the regret is likely to arrive early and loudly, in the first lonely weeks. If you stay in something you’ve quietly given up on, the regret tends to arrive late, as a “what if” that grows over years. Neither of those means you should go. It means the feeling of dread you have right now about leaving is only half the regret picture, and the other half hasn’t shown up yet.

What does a decision you won’t regret look like?

Not one that felt easy, because this one rarely does. Usually it’s one you made deliberately rather than one you drifted into. A few signs you’re deciding rather than drifting:

  • You’ve said the problem out loud to them, clearly and more than once, and given it real time to change.
  • Your reasons are about the present and future, not mostly about what leaving would waste.
  • You’ve separated what happened from the story about it. “They forgot my birthday” is a fact. “They don’t care about me” is a reading. Both matter, but only one is certain.
  • The answer has been stable, across good weeks and bad ones, not just tonight.

If you decide to stay, that can be a real decision too. Staying on purpose, with the problem named and a plan to work on it, is very different from staying because you never chose.

What if you’re afraid of how they’ll react?

Then that comes before everything else on this page. If your partner controls where you go or who you see, monitors your phone or money, has threatened you, or you’re afraid of what they’ll do if you leave, this is no longer only a question about compatibility.

Leaving an abusive partner is often the most dangerous period for the person leaving, because it threatens the control the abusive partner has built.4 That’s not a reason to stay. It’s a reason to plan. The National Domestic Violence Hotline, listed on this page, is free and confidential, and advocates there can help you build a safety plan for leaving.4

What to do this week

  • Write your reasons down, both sides. Then mark each one: past, present or future. Look at which column is doing the heavy lifting.
  • Run the “meet them today” test from above and write down your honest first answer before you argue with it.
  • Name the one change that would make you want to stay. If you haven’t asked for it plainly, ask. If you have, notice how long ago.
  • Set a check-in date a few weeks out, so the decision has an edge instead of floating forever.
  • Talk to one person who has no stake in whether you stay together.

If the decision has you anxious most days, losing sleep, or stuck for months, a licensed therapist or counselor can help you think it through without pushing you either way.

What doesn’t the research show?

  • The coin-toss study pooled many decisions and used self-selected volunteers who chose to let a coin weigh in.1 It says nothing about whether your relationship in particular should end.
  • The sunk cost experiments used made-up scenarios, not people’s real partners.2
  • The regret pattern is an average across many kinds of choices, not a prediction about breakups specifically.3
  • None of this can read your partner’s intentions. It’s a way to look at your own reasons, not at what they feel.

Try it

Which way does each reason actually point? Sort them, then read the catch

  1. 1/6 We still make each other laugh on a bad day, and our fights end in an actual repair.

    Reason to stay. This points toward staying, and it's a strong one: it's about what the relationship does right now, not what it used to do.

  2. 2/6 I've asked for the same change for a year, calmly, three different ways, and nothing has moved.

    Reason to go. This points toward going. It isn't a mood. It's a request you've tested over time, which is about as close to evidence as this decision gets.

  3. 3/6 We've been together four years. Leaving would mean wasting all of it.

    Reason to stay. It argues for staying, but look at the tense. It's about the past. Those four years are spent whether you stay or go, which is exactly the trap researchers call sunk cost.

  4. 4/6 When I picture next spring with them, I feel tired instead of curious.

    Reason to go. This points toward going, and it's about the future, which is the part of the decision you can still change. Check whether it's a steady feeling or a bad-week feeling.

  5. 5/6 They'd be crushed, and I can't be the person who does that to them.

    Reason to stay. A reason to stay, and a kind one. Notice it's about their pain, not about you wanting to be there. Both matter, but they're not the same reason.

  6. 6/6 I've stopped telling them the good parts of my day, and I don't miss it.

    Reason to go. This points toward going. When the person you'd naturally tell stops being the one you want to tell, closeness has slipped, and not missing it is the telling part.

0 to 2 right

The reasons are tangled

Right now it's hard to tell which way your own reasons point, which is exactly what being on the fence feels like. Try writing each reason down and marking whether it's about the past, the present or the future.

3 to 4 right

You can see both sides

You can tell where most reasons point. The harder question is weight. One present-tense reason can outweigh three about what you've already spent, and only you know which ones are carrying your decision.

5 to 6 right

You read reasons clearly

You can see where each reason points, even the guilty ones. The test now is your own list: which of your reasons are about who you are together today, and which are about what leaving would cost?

This is one moment. BUMIS is for the dating patterns you keep seeing in yourself.See your pattern

Steal this text

Say it in your own words, or start from these

  • If you want to put it on the table

    Can we set aside Sunday morning to talk about us? Nothing dramatic. There's something I keep circling, and I'd rather say it to you than keep thinking it alone.

People who talk about this

Labeled by where their authority comes from. Not a ranking, not an endorsement.

  • Credentialed source

Alexandra H. Solomon

Relational self awareness, dating and building lasting relationships, drawn from her couples work and her Northwestern course.

Licensed clinical psychologist; adjunct professor, School of Education and Social Policy, Northwestern University · credential source

Profiles last checked October 1, 2026

  • Credentialed source

Bella DePaulo

Research and writing on single life, including people who choose to stay single and live full lives on their own terms.

Social psychologist (PhD, Harvard); academic affiliate, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, UC Santa Barbara · credential source

Profiles last checked October 1, 2026

  • Credentialed source

Eli J. Finkel

Research on how modern marriage and long term relationships work, and what partners expect from each other.

Professor of Psychology and of Management and Organizations, Northwestern University; director of the Relationships and Motivation Lab · credential source

Profiles last checked October 1, 2026

  • Credentialed source
  • Trending voice

Julie Menanno

How couples get stuck in conflict cycles and how to feel secure with a partner.

Licensed marriage and family therapist (MA, LMFT, LCPC); author of Secure Love · credential source

Profiles last checked October 1, 2026

All 18 people we point to →

Further reading

From other publishers we trust. The full list

Sources

  1. Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent HappinessNational Bureau of Economic Research (Steven D. Levitt), later Review of Economic Studies, 2016-08Used for: A randomized field experiment with people who were having trouble making a major decision (quitting a job and breaking up were among the most common): 22,511 people used the website; those told by a coin toss to make a change were about 11 percentage points more likely to make one, and people told to make a change were happier six months later than those told to keep the status quo. Levitt reads this as a sign people may be excessively cautious about life-changing choices.
  2. Is there a sunk cost effect in committed relationships?Current Psychology (Rego, Arantes and Magalhaes, University of Minho), 2018Used for: In Experiment 1 (N = 902), people reading about an unhappy relationship were more likely to choose to stay when money and effort had already been invested, but not time; in Experiment 2 (N = 275), people were willing to invest more future time in a relationship when more time had already been invested.
  3. The experience of regret: What, when, and whyPsychological Review (Gilovich and Medvec), via Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, 1995Used for: Actions (errors of commission) produce more regret in the short term, while inactions (errors of omission) produce more regret in the long run.
  4. Preparing to LeaveThe National Domestic Violence HotlineUsed for: Leaving an abusive relationship has the potential to be more dangerous, and abusive partners can escalate violent and controlling behavior if they learn of plans to leave; the Hotline helps people make a safety plan for staying, preparing to leave and after leaving.
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